Fight Preview & Prediction - Zhang vs Joyce 2
Can the Juggernaut jump the queue and regain his mandatory spot? Or will Big Bang Zhang teach him another left handed lesson?
When Joe Joyce took on Zhilei Zhang at the Copper Box in April, the “Juggernaut” was expected to steamroll the Chinese southpaw, who was only there to give Joe some practice of fighting left handers ahead of his touted challenge of champion Oleksandr Uysk. But “Big Bang” Zhang had other ideas, forcing referee Howard Foster to wave the fight off in the sixth round, with Joyce’s right eye swollen shut.
Zhang had shockingly taken Joyce’s unbeaten record, his WBO interim world title and most importantly, his WBO mandatory challenger spot. Now five months later, Joyce’s career and chances of a world title shot are on the line in the rematch at Wembley Arena.
Joe has just turned 38 so time is against him, and when he blew out the candles on a birthday cake presented to him in the gym on Tuesday, his only wish was a win this Saturday night.
Everyone has a plan until they punch me in the face
Joyce had said in the build up to the first fight that “Everyone has a plan until they punch me in the face”. (A playful twist on the famous Joe Louis/Mike Tyson quote.) It drew laughs from the press in attendance, who had seen the once shy and awkward Joe come out of his shell in a direct correlation with bludgeoning an array of heavyweight contenders. His stoppage wins against Daniel Dubois and Joseph Parker were impressive, but his performances against Carlos Takam and Christian Hammer served as reminders that Joyce’s chin is not exactly the hardest to find.
Joyce had only faced one southpaw as a professional to that point, back in 2018 when he walked through the limited Lenroy Thomas to pick up the Commonwealth title in only his fourth fight as a professional. Zhang is a lot bigger and better than Thomas, so when he started landing left hands for fun from the start, Joyce looked like a man who had never seen a southpaw in his life.
At the start Joyce seemed undeterred with Zhang’s accuracy and power, he plodded forward with the same arrogance and ignorance that he could not be hurt. But that changed in the second round when a slashing right hook caught him flush. His right eye started to swell immediately, his other senses were scrambled seconds later when a left hand proved that Joyce was in fact human. Joe was hurt, and so was his ego. He fought fire with fire and became desperate. With his eye sight diminishing, maybe he knew he was on borrowed time? Maybe he panicked or just reverted to type?
Whatever the reason, Zhang continued to land his left with ease, continued to win the rounds and when the fight was stopped in the sixth, there were no complaints, no controversy and no excuses. The better man had won.
Lessons learnt
People have questioned Joyce’s ability to deal with southpaws, and after witnessing the first fight you can see why. Maybe they are his kryptonite, but he has had success against them in the past. He bullied the giant and exceptionally skilled Bakhodir Jalolov in the quarter final of the 2016 Rio Olympics. Ok, he might have been outclassed by Oleksandr Uysk back in 2013 at York Hall, but who does get the better of the masterful Ukrainian?
Whether the Putney puncher does struggle with southpaws or not, he has admitted his preparations, both physically and mentally were all wrong for the first fight. His trainer (Ismael Salas), has publicly said that they are working on Joyce’s defensive skills, and Joe himself told Declan Taylor at Boxing News that “Maybe i got caught up in the hype a little bit. Maybe i was believing the hype about my chin.”
Whatever improvements to Joyce’s defence in five months remains to be seen, but his weight has certainly been subject to change. He weighed 256lbs for the first fight, it was his lightest in five years. He claimed it wasn’t intentional, just the result to a change of diet. But it meant his usual advantages of being the bigger, stronger man had been lost to the colossal Chinese man. So for the rematch, Joyce has weighed in at a career high 281lbs, a whopping 25lbs more. Zhang will remain the bigger man, but only just. He also came in at a career high of 287lbs, an increase of 9lbs since April.
The case for revenge
Joyce did have pockets of success in the first fight, especially at close range when he targeted Zhang’s body. His problem was he often stuck in the pocket too long meaning Zhang had plenty of time to crack Joyce back with something bigger. Joyce has now felt and therefore gained respect for Zhang’s power. Similar respect was given to Daniel Dubois ahead of their presumed 50/50 encounter back in 2020. Joyce showed that night in Westminster you don’t get to an Olympic final without having some defensive acumen. When he attacked, he stepped out of the firing line sharply, moving his head off the centre line to avoid Dubois’ powerful right hand. He eventually broke Dubois down late on.
Joyce’s incredible chin and punch power are arguably not his biggest strengths, it’s his engine. His ability to work at such a high pace for twelve rounds is unusual and unique for such a big man. It is here where Joyce can inflict revenge on Zhang, who has a tendency to struggle after the opening rounds. This has cost him twice in the past, after dropping Filip Hrgovic early and being the dominant force in their IBF eliminator last year, his tank drained, letting the Croatian off the hook to steal a controversial points win. ‘Big Bang’s’ tank seemed only half full when he fought Jerry Forrest back in 2021, he dropped the American gatekeeper in each of the first three rounds. But from the fourth onwards he was then running on empty and left Miami with a draw.
Zhang does not like digging deep, Joyce doesn’t like boxing southpaws, something has got to give.
Prediction
Its a tentative pick, but if Joyce starts cautiously and negates Zhang’s early threat, then he can drag him into a battle of attrition later on where he targets Zhang’s midriff and chin from close range. If Joyce’s extra weight is a help instead of a hindrance, then his persistent crude hooks in those exchanges can see him force a stoppage around the 10th round. It will be big, but not necessarily clever. But if Joe gets greedy and eats too many left hands again, then he will have to seriously consider hanging up his gloves and picking up the paint brush, putting his degree in Fine Arts to good use.